UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
20 May 2023
Heavyweight
VS
44%
Latifi
56%
Nascimento
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nascimento
This is a genuine toss-up — Latifi at 44% vs Nascimento at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Latifi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Nascimento throws more volume but Latifi connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Latifi's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nascimento has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Latifi
Nascimento
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+80"
43
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Latifi
Nascimento
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.6
41.9
48.4
Performance Avg
41.5
43
Quality of Victory
31
33
Momentum Score
73
Latifi
Nascimento
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
15
2
Body
2
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance18
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Latifi
Nascimento
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Latifi
Nascimento
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/14 fights
Latifi
Nascimento
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
73
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Latifi
Nascimento
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
25%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Latifi
Nascimento
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
LatifiNascimento
Strike Zones
Latifi
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedNascimento
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Latifi targets the head (70% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Nascimento targets the head (79% of attacks) — Latifi absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Latifi
RND
Nascimento
0/0R00/0
Latifi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Nascimento · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Latifi · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Tanner BoserRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
L · KO · R2
Volkan OezdemirRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
Nascimento · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Tanner BoserRating 5.1Decision
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