UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Kansas City, USA
26 Apr 2025
Welterweight
VS
56%
Brown
44%
Dalby
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:39
Randy
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
20 – 8
6'3"78" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 53
Nicolas
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
24 – 6
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brown

This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 56% vs Dalby at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Dalby throws more volume but Brown connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brown's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Brown
Dalby
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
74"
35+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Dalby
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
41.4
48.7
Performance Avg
41.9
39
Quality of Victory
29
92
Momentum Score
45
Brown
Dalby
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
6
4
Body
1
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
32Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Brown
Dalby
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Dalby
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/30 fights
Brown
Dalby
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Brown
Dalby
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
13%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brown
Dalby
Striking4.1 / 2.5Volume5.3 / 8.2Grappling2.9 / 2.1Wrestling2.0 / 1.5Submission2.1 / 0.0Pressure5.4 / 2.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.7
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.2
Brown
Strike Zones
Dalby
Brown
Attacking
26HEAD4BODY2LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY4LEGS11 absorbed
Dalby
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY4LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD4BODY2LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (81% of attacks) — Dalby absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Dalby targets the head (55% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brown
RND
Dalby
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W2.8L5.5W5.2W6.6L5.0W3.4L5.9W5.5W4.2L5.0W5.0W5.9W4.5W3.0L4.5W6.0W5.0W7.3L5.6W3.8L6.1L2016-012018-072022-052024-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Dalby · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.9L5.5L4.5W5.4W5.6L4.5W4.7W5.5W7.0W7.1L3.6L4.5W2015-052020-112023-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Brown · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleRating 7.3
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Dalby · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Saygid IzagakhmaevRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Randy BrownRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

Randy Brown · Nicolas Dalby
← Back to fights