UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Featherweight
VS
56%
Choi
44%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:29
CFR 70
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Choi
This is a genuine toss-up — Choi at 56% vs Santos at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Choi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Choi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Choi's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Choi
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
67"
35
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Choi
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.4
55.6
60.7
Performance Avg
50.7
57
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
71
Choi
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.9
56%
Strike Accuracy
41%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
19
7
Body
3
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
41Distance24
1Clinch1
2Ground0
Choi
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Choi
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Choi
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Choi
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Choi
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
ChoiSantos
Strike Zones
Choi
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedSantos
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Choi targets the head (82% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (76% of attacks) — Choi absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Choi
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Choi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Choi · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Daniel SantosRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Nate LandwehrRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · KO · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
Upcoming
Kyle NelsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Charles JourdainRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dooho ChoiRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
JooSang YooRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
JeongYeong LeeRating 5.6Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Johnny MunozRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R2
John CastanedaRating 6KO/TKO
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