UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
Montreal, Canada
8 May 2010
Lightweight
VS
21%
Stout
79%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SS
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
20 – 12
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 12
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
Well-Rounded7-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stephens

Stephens is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Stephens has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Stout throws more volume but Stephens connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Stout's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stout
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stout
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.3
45.0
35.3
Performance Avg
41.1
29
Quality of Victory
40
60
Momentum Score
76
Stout
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
28%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
9
4
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance10
3Clinch2
7Ground0
Stout
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stout
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/32 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Stout
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
76
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Stout
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
47%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stout
Stephens
Striking2.0 / 5.5Volume8.0 / 4.6Grappling2.1 / 1.1Wrestling1.5 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.1 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Stout
Strike Zones
Stephens
Stout
Attacking
21HEAD4BODY1LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Stephens
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD4BODY1LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stout targets the head (81% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (75% of attacks) — Stout absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stout
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Stout · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0104.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W1.5L2.8L1.5L2006-032008-102011-062013-062015-08
WinLossTrend

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Stout · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Frankie PerezRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
L · KO · R2
Ross PearsonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · KO · R1
KJ NoonsRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Cody McKenzieRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
L · Sub · R3
James KrauseRating 4
Submission
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

News & Media

Sam Stout · Jeremy Stephens
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