UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
Las Vegas, USA
18 May 2024
Middleweight
VS
56%
Magomedov
44%
Alves
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Magomedov
This is a genuine toss-up — Magomedov at 56% vs Alves at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Magomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Magomedov's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alves has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Magomedov
Alves
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
72"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Magomedov
Alves
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.4
39.1
46.1
Performance Avg
49.3
39
Quality of Victory
49
63
Momentum Score
30
Magomedov
Alves
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
53%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
3
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Magomedov
Alves
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Magomedov
Alves
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
14
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/35 fights
Chin rating based on
16/23 fights
Magomedov
Alves
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
30
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Magomedov
Alves
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
63%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Magomedov
Alves
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
MagomedovAlves
Strike Zones
Magomedov
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedAlves
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Magomedov targets the body (60% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Alves targets the head (40% of attacks) — Magomedov absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Magomedov
RND
Alves
0/0R00/0
Magomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Magomedov · Last 5
Upcoming
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