UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Welterweight
VS
44%
Howard
56%
Ebersole
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JH
John Howard
"Doomsday"
24 – 13
5'7"72" reachOrthodox43 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
BE
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
51 – 18
Well-Rounded45 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'0"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ebersole

This is a genuine toss-up — Howard at 44% vs Ebersole at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ebersole throws more volume but Howard connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Howard's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Howard
Ebersole
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
43+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Howard
Ebersole
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
17.4
40.1
Performance Avg
44.2
34
Quality of Victory
32
40
Momentum Score
75
Howard
Ebersole
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
14
8
Body
5
8
Leg
9
RangeRange
17Distance21
12Clinch7
0Ground0
Howard
Ebersole
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Howard
Ebersole
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/37 fights
Chin rating based on
8/69 fights
Howard
Ebersole
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
75
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Howard
Ebersole
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
20%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Howard
Ebersole
Striking3.9 / 3.3Volume6.7 / 7.7Grappling1.7 / 1.9Wrestling1.2 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Howard
Strike Zones
Ebersole
Howard
Attacking
13HEAD8BODY8LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD5BODY9LEGS28 absorbed
Ebersole
Attacking
14HEAD5BODY9LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD8BODY8LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Howard targets the head (45% of attacks) — Ebersole absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Ebersole targets the head (50% of attacks) — Howard absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Howard
RND
Ebersole
0/0R00/0

Howard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.9L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W2.8L2009-012010-082013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Ebersole · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L2011-022011-122012-072014-092015-06
WinLossTrend

Howard · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Tim MeansRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · KO · R1
Lorenz LarkinRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04

Ebersole · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Omari AkhmedovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
John HowardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
James HeadRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
TJ WaldburgerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06

News & Media

John Howard · Brian Ebersole
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