UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Women's Featherweight
VS
58%
Chiasson
42%
Dumont
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiasson
This is a genuine toss-up — Chiasson at 58% vs Dumont at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Chiasson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Dumont has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Chiasson's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chiasson
Dumont
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
67"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chiasson
Dumont
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.5
45.3
53.0
Performance Avg
48.0
50
Quality of Victory
30
96
Momentum Score
50
Chiasson
Dumont
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
56%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
10
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance8
1Clinch4
0Ground0
Chiasson
Dumont
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiasson
Dumont
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/17 fights
Chin rating based on
12/16 fights
Chiasson
Dumont
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
96
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Chiasson
Dumont
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiasson
Dumont
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.3
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.5
ChiassonDumont
Strike Zones
Chiasson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedDumont
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiasson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Dumont absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Dumont targets the head (83% of attacks) — Chiasson absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiasson
RND
Dumont
0/0R00/0
Chiasson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Dumont · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Chiasson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5Decision
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Dumont · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joselyne EdwardsRating 6.9Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
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