UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2007
Heavyweight
VS
44%
McCully
56%
Hardonk
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JM
Justin McCully
"The Insane One"
11 – 5
6'1"73" reachOrthodox50 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
AH
Antoni Hardonk
8 – 6
Knockout Artist2-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hardonk

This is a genuine toss-up — McCully at 44% vs Hardonk at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hardonk has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.

Hardonk has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hardonk has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

McCully
Hardonk
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+78"
50
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
McCully
Hardonk
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
17.0
35.0
Performance Avg
54.5
25
Quality of Victory
58
50
Momentum Score
13
McCully
Hardonk
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.9
34%
Strike Accuracy
70%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
7
0
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance1
1Clinch10
2Ground0
McCully
Hardonk
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McCully
Hardonk
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
42
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/16 fights
Chin rating based on
8/14 fights
McCully
Hardonk
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
13
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
McCully
Hardonk
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McCully
Hardonk
Striking1.0 / 10.0Volume9.0 / 1.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
McCully
Strike Zones
Hardonk
McCully
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Hardonk
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McCully targets the head (60% of attacks) — Hardonk absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Hardonk targets the head (64% of attacks) — McCully absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McCully
RND
Hardonk
0/0R00/0

McCully · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2007-042008-072008-122009-08
WinLossTrend

Hardonk · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W5.5L1.5L5.0W5.2W5.2W2.8L2.8L2006-112007-082008-062009-042009-10
WinLossTrend

McCully · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Mike RussowRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
W · Dec · R3
Eddie SanchezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night - Fight for the Troops · 2008-12
L · Sub · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Dec · R3
Antoni HardonkRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04

Hardonk · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Pat BarryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
L · KO · R2
Cheick KongoRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04
W · KO · R2
Mike WesselRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 · 2008-12
W · KO · R2
Eddie SanchezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 85: Bedlam · 2008-06
W · KO · R1
Colin RobinsonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 80: Rapid Fire · 2008-01

News & Media

Justin McCully · Antoni Hardonk
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