UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Las Vegas, USA
14 Mar 2026
Flyweight
VS
51%
Johnson
49%
Silva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johnson
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 51% vs Silva at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Silva has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'4"
70"+
Reach
65"
35+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.8
52.5
48.4
Performance Avg
51.7
43
Quality of Victory
53
75
Momentum Score
39
Johnson
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.3
52%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
28
13
Body
6
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance32
13Clinch2
0Ground0
Johnson
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
50
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Johnson
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
39
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
Johnson
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
JohnsonSilva
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedSilva
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (56% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (82% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
Upcoming
Asu AlmabayevUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Alex PerezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R2
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Ramazan TemirovRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
Silva · Last 5
Upcoming
Edgar ChairezUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Sub · R3
HyunSung ParkRating 7.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R3
Joshua VanRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12