UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Las Vegas, USA
29 Dec 2012
Flyweight
VS
43%
Cariaso
57%
Moraga
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moraga
This is a genuine toss-up — Cariaso at 43% vs Moraga at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Moraga has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Cariaso throws more volume but Moraga connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moraga has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cariaso
Moraga
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'6"
64"
Reach
+66"
44
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Moraga
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
18.3
39.1
Performance Avg
47.9
29
Quality of Victory
42
45
Momentum Score
64
Cariaso
Moraga
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Cariaso
Moraga
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cariaso
Moraga
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
58
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
14/26 fights
Cariaso
Moraga
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
64
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cariaso
Moraga
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
63%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cariaso
Moraga
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
CariasoMoraga
Strike Zones
Cariaso
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMoraga
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the head (67% of attacks) — Moraga absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Moraga targets the head (50% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cariaso
RND
Moraga
0/0R00/0
Cariaso · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Moraga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
Moraga · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Magomed BibulatovRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ashkan MokhtarianRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01