★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 18 Women's Bantamweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2013
Ultimate Fighter 18 Women's Bantamweight Tournament
VS
97%
Pena
3%
Rakoczy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pena
Pena is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 63 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 52 points.
Pena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pena's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pena
Rakoczy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
69"
Reach
36+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pena
Rakoczy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.6
2.1
58.0
Performance Avg
0.0
52
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Pena
Rakoczy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
2
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch2
32Ground0
Pena
Rakoczy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pena
Rakoczy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/19 fights
Chin rating based on
2/6 fights
Pena
Rakoczy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Pena
Rakoczy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pena
Rakoczy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
PenaRakoczy
Strike Zones
Pena
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedRakoczy
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pena targets the head (97% of attacks) — Rakoczy absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯Rakoczy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pena
RND
Rakoczy
0/0R00/0
Pena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Rakoczy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Pena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonRating 4.3Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonRating 5.1Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesRating 6.3Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannRating 5.5Submission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
Rakoczy · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Valerie LetourneauRating 5.5Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Julianna PenaRating 3KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · 2013-11