UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos
Zagreb, Croatia
10 Apr 2016
Middleweight
VS
55%
Chirico
45%
Velickovic
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chirico
This is a genuine toss-up — Chirico at 55% vs Velickovic at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Chirico has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Chirico's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chirico
Velickovic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Chirico
Velickovic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
16.5
39.3
Performance Avg
38.5
41
Quality of Victory
38
25
Momentum Score
56
Chirico
Velickovic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
31%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
6
5
Body
5
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
19Distance11
2Clinch2
2Ground0
Chirico
Velickovic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chirico
Velickovic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
94
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/20 fights
Chin rating based on
6/21 fights
Chirico
Velickovic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
56
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Chirico
Velickovic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chirico
Velickovic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
ChiricoVelickovic
Strike Zones
Chirico
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedVelickovic
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chirico targets the head (65% of attacks) — Velickovic absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Velickovic targets the head (46% of attacks) — Chirico absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chirico
RND
Velickovic
0/0R00/0
Chirico · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Velickovic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Chirico · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
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W · KO · R1
Joaquin BuckleyRating 6.2KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9Decision
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Velickovic · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Darren TillRating 5.5Decision
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W · KO · R3
Nicholas MusokeRating 5.5KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5Decision
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Upcoming
Michael GravesDecision
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