UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Buday
47%
Gaziev
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:56
Martin
Martin Buday
"Badys"
16 – 2
6'4"77" reachOrthodox34 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Shamil
Shamil Gaziev
14 – 3
Striker2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 48

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Buday

This is a genuine toss-up — Buday at 53% vs Gaziev at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gaziev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Buday has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gaziev has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Buday
Gaziev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
77"
Reach
+78"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Buday
Gaziev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.5
48.3
52.5
Performance Avg
48.0
29
Quality of Victory
47
78
Momentum Score
49
Buday
Gaziev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.0
53%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
0
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance12
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Buday
Gaziev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Buday
Gaziev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
34
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Buday
Gaziev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
49
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
Buday
Gaziev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Buday
Gaziev
Striking1.8 / 7.7Volume8.6 / 3.7Grappling3.2 / 0.8Wrestling2.2 / 0.6Submission1.4 / 0.0Pressure3.6 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Buday
Strike Zones
Gaziev
Buday
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD5BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Gaziev
Attacking
8HEAD5BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Buday targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gaziev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gaziev targets the head (62% of attacks) — Buday absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Buday
RND
Gaziev
0/0R00/0

Buday · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5W4.5W4.5W5.1W3.4L5.2W5.8W4.5W2022-042023-042023-122025-042025-07
WinLossTrend

Gaziev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0106.2W4.5L4.8W5.0W3.0L5.1L2023-122024-032024-082025-022025-112026-05
WinLossTrend

Buday · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Marcus BuchechaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Uran SatybaldievRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Shamil GazievRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R1
Josh ParisianRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08

Gaziev · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Brando PericicRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Thomas PetersenRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · KO · R4
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

News & Media

Martin Buday · Shamil Gaziev
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