UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Welterweight
VS
26%
Cote
74%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Thompson
Thompson is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Thompson throws more volume but Cote connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cote's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cote
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"
Reach
75"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cote
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
46.3
41.8
Performance Avg
48.9
38
Quality of Victory
43
79
Momentum Score
45
Cote
Thompson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
19
0
Body
2
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Cote
Thompson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cote
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/34 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
Cote
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Cote
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cote
Thompson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
CoteThompson
Strike Zones
Cote
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedThompson
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cote targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (83% of attacks) — Cote absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cote
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cote · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Cote · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
L · KO · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
W · KO · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
W · Dec · R3
Joe RiggsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12