METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Welterweight
VS
26%
Cote
74%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Stephen ThompsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Patrick Cote · UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Thompson
→
Actual result
Thompson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Thompson is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Cote's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CoteThompson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cote
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"
Reach
75"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cote
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
46.3
41.8
Performance Avg
48.9
38
Quality of Victory
43
79
Momentum Score
45
Cote
Thompson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.0
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
5.2
5.0
Style: Volume
5.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
19
0
Body
2
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Cote
Thompson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cote
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/34 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
Cote
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Cote
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cote
Thompson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
CoteThompson
Strike Zones
Cote
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedThompson
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cote targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (83% of attacks) — Cote absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cote
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cote · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesDecision
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L · KO · R3
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W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersKO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Joshua BurkmanKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Joe RiggsDecision
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Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimDecision
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L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyKO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadDecision
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