UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Heavyweight
VS
43%
Ngannou
57%
Rozenstruik
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:20
FN
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
17 – 3
6'4"83" reachOrthodox39 yrs6-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 43
Jairzinho
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boy"
15 – 6
Knockout Artist38 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rozenstruik

This is a genuine toss-up — Ngannou at 43% vs Rozenstruik at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rozenstruik has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rozenstruik has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ngannou
Rozenstruik
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
83"+
Reach
78"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ngannou
Rozenstruik
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.0
57.0
70.4
Performance Avg
56.7
60
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
56
Ngannou
Rozenstruik
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
53%
9.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
9 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Ngannou
Rozenstruik
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ngannou
Rozenstruik
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
38
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Ngannou
Rozenstruik
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
56
6-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Ngannou
Rozenstruik
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
89%
9
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ngannou
Rozenstruik
Striking9.2 / 10.0Volume2.4 / 2.1Grappling0.9 / 0.3Wrestling0.6 / 0.2Submission0.8 / 0.0Pressure8.4 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
2.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Ngannou
Strike Zones
Rozenstruik
Ngannou
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Rozenstruik
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ngannou targets the head (83% of attacks) — Rozenstruik absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Rozenstruik targets the head (60% of attacks) — Ngannou absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ngannou
RND
Rozenstruik
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ngannou · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.2W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.7W5.0W6.6L6.7L5.9W5.0W5.0W6.1W6.2W6.2W2015-122017-012018-112021-032022-01
WinLossTrend

Rozenstruik · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W5.7W5.5W1.9L5.2W7.2L5.2W6.4L2.8L5.3W3.3L6.0W4.9W6.7L2019-022020-052021-092024-032025-02
WinLossTrend

Ngannou · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Ciryl GaneRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01
W · KO · R2
Stipe MiocicRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Junior Dos SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02

Rozenstruik · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Tai TuivasaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R4
Shamil GazievRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

News & Media

Francis Ngannou · Jairzinho Rozenstruik
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