Jack Hermansson vs Kelvin Gastelum — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

18 Jul 2020

Middleweight

57%

Hermansson

43%

Gastelum

Win Probability

Submission

Round 1 · 1:18

Jack Hermansson

"The Joker"

24 – 10

6'1"77" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 54

Kelvin Gastelum

21 – 11

Well-Rounded34 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"

CFR 41

★ Official Result

Jack HermanssonwinsSubmissionR1 · 1:18

def. Kelvin Gastelum · UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Hermansson

→

Actual result

Hermansson wins

Submission · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Hermansson at 57% vs Gastelum at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Hermansson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

HermanssonGastelum

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Hermansson

Gastelum

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"+

Height

5'9"

77"+

Reach

71"

Age

+34

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Hermansson

Gastelum

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

53.8

41.4

48.1

Performance Avg

47.4

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Hermansson

Gastelum

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.9

/ 10

3.3

/ 10

5.6

Style: Pressure

4.2

4.8

Style: Volume

6.3

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

3 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

2Distance0

0Clinch0

0Ground0

Hermansson

Gastelum

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.3

/ 10

2.7

/ 10

2.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.9

2.7

Submission Style (/10)

1.4

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Hermansson

Gastelum

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.4 stoppage

KO round context

—

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/34 fights

Chin rating based on

26/32 fights

Hermansson

Gastelum

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R5

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

Hermansson

Gastelum

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

55%

36%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hermansson

Gastelum

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.7

2.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.9

2.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.4

5.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

4.2

4.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.3

Hermansson

Strike Zones

Gastelum

Hermansson

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

0 absorbed

Gastelum

Attacking

0 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Hermansson targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hermansson

RND

Gastelum

0/0R00/0

Hermansson · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Myktybek Orolbai

KO/TKO

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L · KO · R1

Gregory Rodrigues

KO/TKO

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W · Dec · R5

Joe Pyfer

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02

L · KO · R2

Roman Dolidze

KO/TKO

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W · Dec · R3

Chris Curtis

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Vicente Luque

Submission

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04

W · Dec · R3

Dustin Stoltzfus

Decision

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

L · Dec · R3

Joe Pyfer

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Daniel Rodriguez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06

L · Sub · R3

Sean Brady

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

News & Media

Jack Hermansson · Kelvin Gastelum

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