UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson
London, United Kingdom
21 Feb 2009
Welterweight
VS
44%
Thiago
56%
Koscheck
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:29
PT
Paulo Thiago
18 – 9
5'11"74" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
JK
Josh Koscheck
17 – 11
Well-Rounded5-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Koscheck

This is a genuine toss-up — Thiago at 44% vs Koscheck at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Koscheck has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Thiago's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Koscheck has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Thiago
Koscheck
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
73"
45+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thiago
Koscheck
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
16.9
37.5
Performance Avg
50.5
37
Quality of Victory
44
39
Momentum Score
59
Thiago
Koscheck
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.9
35%
Strike Accuracy
39%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
1
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Thiago
Koscheck
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thiago
Koscheck
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
25/28 fights
Thiago
Koscheck
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
59
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Thiago
Koscheck
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thiago
Koscheck
Striking2.8 / 5.2Volume5.6 / 4.4Grappling3.0 / 2.6Wrestling2.1 / 1.8Submission2.0 / 2.0Pressure4.0 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Thiago
Strike Zones
Koscheck
Thiago
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Koscheck
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thiago targets the head (57% of attacks) — Koscheck absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Koscheck targets the head (75% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thiago
RND
Koscheck
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Thiago · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L2009-022010-062012-112014-09
WinLossTrend

Koscheck · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W4.0L5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W1.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5L1.8L1.5L2.8L1.5L2005-042007-042009-092013-022015-03
WinLossTrend

Thiago · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11

Koscheck · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Erick SilvaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Jake EllenbergerRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Tyron WoodleyRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Robbie LawlerRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Dec · R3
Johny HendricksRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05

News & Media

Paulo Thiago · Josh Koscheck
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