METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Welterweight
VS
54%
Brown
46%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 45
★ Official Result
Randy BrownwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brown
→
Actual result
Brown wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 54% vs Santos at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BrownSantos
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Brown
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
73"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
45.3
48.7
Performance Avg
49.3
39
Quality of Victory
39
92
Momentum Score
45
Brown
Santos
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
5.4
Style: Pressure
5.1
5.3
Style: Volume
5.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
4
2
Body
0
4
Leg
10
RangeRange
24Distance13
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Brown
Santos
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
2.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brown
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
18/35 fights
Brown
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Brown
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
46%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
BrownSantos
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSantos
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (76% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R2
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Chidi NjokuaniKO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Zachary ScrogginKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownDecision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Upcoming
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