UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Welterweight
VS
54%
Brown
46%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 54% vs Santos at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brown
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
73"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
45.3
48.7
Performance Avg
49.3
39
Quality of Victory
39
92
Momentum Score
45
Brown
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
4
2
Body
0
4
Leg
10
RangeRange
24Distance13
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Brown
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
18/35 fights
Brown
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Brown
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
46%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
BrownSantos
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSantos
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (76% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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W · KO · R2
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Bryan BattleRating 7.3Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Neil MagnyRating 3.4KO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Chidi NjokuaniRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Zachary ScrogginRating 5KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Upcoming
Rinat FakhretdinovDecision
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