UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Flyweight
VS
64%
Moreno
36%
Askarov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moreno
Moreno holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Askarov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moreno has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Askarov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Moreno's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moreno
Askarov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
67"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreno
Askarov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.8
29.5
52.5
Performance Avg
47.5
47
Quality of Victory
29
54
Momentum Score
83
Moreno
Askarov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
5
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
7Ground5
Moreno
Askarov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moreno
Askarov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/33 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Moreno
Askarov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
83
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Moreno
Askarov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moreno
Askarov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.3
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.5
MorenoAskarov
Strike Zones
Moreno
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedAskarov
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moreno targets the head (89% of attacks) — Askarov absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Askarov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moreno
RND
Askarov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Moreno · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Askarov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Moreno · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Askarov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kai Kara-FranceRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07
W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 4.6Decision
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
Upcoming
Brandon MorenoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09