UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Bantamweight
VS
49%
Blackshear
51%
Bautista
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bautista
This is a genuine toss-up — Blackshear at 49% vs Bautista at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Blackshear
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
69"
31+
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Switch
Blackshear
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
56.7
50.7
Performance Avg
54.6
48
Quality of Victory
39
56
Momentum Score
73
Blackshear
Bautista
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
15
4
Body
10
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
16Distance17
5Clinch7
0Ground4
Blackshear
Bautista
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Blackshear
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/25 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Blackshear
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
73
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Blackshear
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
46%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blackshear
Bautista
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
BlackshearBautista
Strike Zones
Blackshear
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedBautista
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blackshear targets the head (57% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the head (54% of attacks) — Blackshear absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blackshear
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0
Blackshear · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Bautista · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Blackshear · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Davey GrantRating 6.3Decision
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W · Dec · R3
AlatengheiliRating 5.1Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Cody StamannRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R1
Montel JacksonRating 2.4KO/TKO
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Bautista · Last 5
Upcoming
Cory SandhagenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
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