UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Ledyard, USA
5 Sept 2014
Heavyweight
VS
27%
Mitrione
73%
Lewis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:41
MM
Matt Mitrione
12 – 5
6'3"82" reachSwitch47 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 22
Derrick
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29 – 13
Knockout Artist41 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'3"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lewis

Lewis is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Mitrione throws more volume but Lewis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Mitrione's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lewis has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mitrione
Lewis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
82"+
Reach
79"
47
Age
+41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Mitrione
Lewis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.9
59.2
58.4
Performance Avg
57.5
54
Quality of Victory
53
82
Momentum Score
84
Mitrione
Lewis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.3
55%
Strike Accuracy
56%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
8 KOs
KO Finishes
16 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Mitrione
Lewis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mitrione
Lewis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
8
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.1 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/17 fights
Chin rating based on
32/42 fights
Mitrione
Lewis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Mitrione
Lewis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
80%
8
KO / TKO Wins
16
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mitrione
Lewis
Striking10.0 / 9.3Volume2.2 / 2.9Grappling0.3 / 0.5Wrestling0.2 / 0.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.2 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Mitrione
Strike Zones
Lewis
Mitrione
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Lewis
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mitrione targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Lewis targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mitrione absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mitrione
RND
Lewis
0/0R00/0

Mitrione · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L1.5L5.0W1.5L5.0W6.2W5.0W1.5L4.0L2009-122011-062013-092015-062016-01
WinLossTrend

Lewis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.2W2.8L5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.4W5.1W3.4L5.9W4.9W6.8W2.1L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.1W6.1W4.5L5.3W3.2L2.7L2.0L5.6W7.3L5.6W6.2W4.3L2014-042016-072019-032022-072026-01
WinLossTrend

Mitrione · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Travis BrowneRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
L · Sub · R1
Ben RothwellRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
W · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · 2014-09
W · KO · R1
Shawn JordanRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03

Lewis · Last 5

Upcoming
Josh Hokit
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Matt Mitrione · Derrick Lewis
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