UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
Dallas, USA
8 Sept 2018
Women's Strawweight
VS
36%
Esparza
64%
Suarez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:33
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Suarez
Suarez holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Esparza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Suarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Suarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Esparza
Suarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
+66"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Esparza
Suarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
72.7
45.9
Performance Avg
64.5
35
Quality of Victory
48
60
Momentum Score
100
Esparza
Suarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
59%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
28
1
Body
3
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground31
Esparza
Suarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Suarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
10/14 fights
Esparza
Suarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
Esparza
Suarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
5
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Suarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.6
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
EsparzaSuarez
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedSuarez
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the body (100% of attacks) — Suarez absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Suarez targets the head (85% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Suarez
0/0R00/0
Esparza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Suarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Suarez · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Loopy GodinezRating 5.7Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 7.3Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Sub · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · Sub · R2
Montana De La RosaRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02