★ Championship Bout · Middleweight
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Sept 2020
Middleweight
VS
53%
Adesanya
47%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Adesanya
This is a genuine toss-up — Adesanya at 53% vs Costa at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Adesanya has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Adesanya's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Adesanya
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
72"
36
Age
+35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Adesanya
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.4
55.3
61.2
Performance Avg
52.9
56
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
59
Adesanya
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
59%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
1
2
Body
2
11
Leg
2
RangeRange
23Distance5
2Clinch0
8Ground0
Adesanya
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Adesanya
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/30 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Adesanya
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Adesanya
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
63%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Adesanya
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
AdesanyaCosta
Strike Zones
Adesanya
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCosta
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Adesanya targets the head (61% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the body (40% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Adesanya
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Adesanya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Adesanya · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joe PyferRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.3Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
W · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 7.2KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08