METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Middleweight
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Sept 2020
Middleweight
VS
53%
Adesanya
47%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:59
★ Official Result
Israel AdesanyawinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:59
def. Paulo Costa · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Adesanya
→
Actual result
Adesanya wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Adesanya at 53% vs Costa at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Adesanya has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Adesanya's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AdesanyaCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Adesanya
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
72"
37
Age
+35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Adesanya
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.4
55.3
61.2
Performance Avg
52.9
56
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
59
Adesanya
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
7.6
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
6.4
6.3
Style: Volume
4.3
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
1
2
Body
2
11
Leg
2
RangeRange
23Distance5
2Clinch0
8Ground0
Adesanya
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Adesanya
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/30 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Adesanya
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Adesanya
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
63%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Adesanya
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
AdesanyaCosta
Strike Zones
Adesanya
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCosta
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Adesanya targets the head (61% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the body (40% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Adesanya
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Adesanya · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joe PyferKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisSubmission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandDecision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
W · KO · R2
Alex PereiraKO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovKO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandDecision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdDecision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08