UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Mexico City, Mexico
13 Jun 2015
Lightweight
VS
27%
Melendez
73%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alvarez
Alvarez is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alvarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alvarez has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Melendez
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
69"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Melendez
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
7.0
19.3
20.7
Performance Avg
52.9
25
Quality of Victory
50
0
Momentum Score
66
Melendez
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.0
30%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
10
1
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance13
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Melendez
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Melendez
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/30 fights
Chin rating based on
8/35 fights
Melendez
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
66
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Melendez
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Melendez
Alvarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
8.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
MelendezAlvarez
Strike Zones
Melendez
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedAlvarez
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Melendez targets the head (94% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (71% of attacks) — Melendez absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Melendez
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0
Melendez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Melendez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6Decision
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 6Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Eddie AlvarezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Anthony PettisRating 2.1Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
Alvarez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin PoirierUFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07