UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero
Hollywood, USA
27 Jun 2015
Welterweight
VS
92%
Oliveira
8%
Merritt
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AO
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22 – 12
5'11"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 30
JM
Joe Merritt
7 – 2
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox6'0"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

Oliveira is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.

Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira
Merritt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
76"
Reach
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Merritt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
2.7
46.5
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Oliveira
Merritt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.3
54%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
4
0
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
1Clinch2
2Ground2
Oliveira
Merritt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oliveira
Merritt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
1/9 fights
Oliveira
Merritt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Merritt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Merritt
Striking4.7 / 0.0Volume4.0 / 0.0Grappling3.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.1 / 0.0Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure6.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Merritt
Oliveira
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Merritt
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (67% of attacks) — Merritt absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Merritt targets the head (80% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Merritt
0/0R00/0

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.2L5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W3.8L5.5L5.8L5.1W4.5W3.6L2.4L6.2L3.4L2015-032016-102018-122021-042022-03
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Merritt · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06

News & Media

Alex Oliveira · Joe Merritt
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