METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Lightweight
VS
60%
Dunham
40%
Bailey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Evan DunhamwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Shamar Bailey · UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dunham
→
Actual result
Dunham wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Dunham holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Bailey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Dunham has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dunham's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DunhamBailey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dunham
Bailey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+75"
44
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Dunham
Bailey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.2
10.8
40.1
Performance Avg
28.3
30
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
33
Dunham
Bailey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
0.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
20%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
8
1
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
37Distance10
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Dunham
Bailey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dunham
Bailey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
Dunham
Bailey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Dunham
Bailey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
18%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dunham
Bailey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
DunhamBailey
Strike Zones
Dunham
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedBailey
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dunham targets the head (95% of attacks) — Bailey absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Bailey targets the head (73% of attacks) — Dunham absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dunham
RND
Bailey
0/0R00/0
Dunham · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Bailey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Dunham · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Herbert BurnsRating 1.9Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · KO · R2
Francisco TrinaldoRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R1
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
Upcoming
Beneil DariushDecision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
Bailey · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Danny CastilloRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11
L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Ryan McGillivrayRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06