METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Lightweight
VS
61%
Ferreira
39%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:23
★ Official Result
Diego FerreirawinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:23
def. Kyle Nelson · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferreira
→
Actual result
Ferreira wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Ferreira holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ferreira's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FerreiraNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferreira
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
41
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Ferreira
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.1
36.8
50.5
Performance Avg
41.6
44
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
36
Ferreira
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
6.3
Style: Pressure
4.2
4.1
Style: Volume
5.7
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Ferreira
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferreira
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Ferreira
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ferreira
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
40%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferreira
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
FerreiraNelson
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedNelson
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferreira
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Ferreira · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloDecision
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Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO
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