UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Lightweight
VS
60%
Ferreira
40%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:23
Diego
Diego Ferreira
19 – 7
5'9"74" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Kyle
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded35 yrsSwitch71" reach5'11"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferreira

Ferreira holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ferreira's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ferreira
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
41
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Ferreira
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
36.8
50.7
Performance Avg
41.6
45
Quality of Victory
39
87
Momentum Score
36
Ferreira
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Ferreira
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferreira
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Ferreira
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
36
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ferreira
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
40%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferreira
Nelson
Striking6.2 / 4.9Volume3.6 / 5.7Grappling2.3 / 1.4Wrestling1.6 / 1.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Ferreira
Strike Zones
Nelson
Ferreira
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferreira
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.2W6.5L2.8L4.5W5.4W5.3W4.5W4.5W5.2W6.5L2.8L3.8L5.3W6.1W7.0L3.6L2014-062018-022021-022025-012025-09
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0103.8L4.0L5.0W5.2L6.2L4.5W5.8W5.2W3.4L4.7W3.0L2018-122020-092023-092025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

Nelson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Diego Ferreira · Kyle Nelson
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