UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Edmonton, Canada
9 Sept 2017
Flyweight
VS
81%
Cejudo
19%
Reis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cejudo
Cejudo is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cejudo's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reis has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cejudo
Reis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
64"
Reach
+65"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Cejudo
Reis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.7
15.5
57.5
Performance Avg
41.5
54
Quality of Victory
33
97
Momentum Score
65
Cejudo
Reis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
33%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Cejudo
Reis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cejudo
Reis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
38
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Cejudo
Reis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
65
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Cejudo
Reis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cejudo
Reis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
CejudoReis
Strike Zones
Cejudo
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedReis
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cejudo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Reis absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Reis targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cejudo
RND
Reis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cejudo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Reis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Cejudo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
Reis · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Ben NguyenRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
John MoragaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Henry CejudoRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Sub · R3
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04