UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Bantamweight
VS
20%
Rivera
80%
Yan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Yan
Yan is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Yan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Yan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Rivera
Yan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'7"
68"+
Reach
67"
36
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Rivera
Yan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.8
65.1
43.5
Performance Avg
56.4
30
Quality of Victory
44
58
Momentum Score
100
Rivera
Yan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
37%
Strike Accuracy
57%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
12
8
Body
6
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
24Distance16
1Clinch2
4Ground0
Rivera
Yan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rivera
Yan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
92
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/28 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Rivera
Yan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
100
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Rivera
Yan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rivera
Yan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
RiveraYan
Strike Zones
Rivera
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedYan
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rivera targets the head (66% of attacks) — Yan absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Yan targets the head (67% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rivera
RND
Yan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rivera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Yan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Rivera · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · 2021-02
W · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Petr YanRating 7Decision
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
John DodsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09
Yan · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Marcus McGheeRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · Dec · R5
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 5.8Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03