METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Flyweight
VS
70%
Costa
30%
Borjas
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:35
★ Official Result
Alessandro CostawinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:35
def. Kevin Borjas · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Costa wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Costa is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Borjas has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CostaBorjas
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Costa
Borjas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
67"
Reach
+68"
30
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Borjas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.6
28.2
57.9
Performance Avg
34.7
55
Quality of Victory
39
85
Momentum Score
10
Costa
Borjas
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
8.9
Style: Pressure
0.9
1.3
Style: Volume
8.6
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
2
0
Body
1
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance3
0Clinch0
20Ground0
Costa
Borjas
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Costa
Borjas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/20 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Costa
Borjas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
10
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Costa
Borjas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Borjas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.9
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
CostaBorjas
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBorjas
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (77% of attacks) — Borjas absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Borjas targets the head (67% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Borjas
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Costa · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
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Borjas · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
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