UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Flyweight
VS
74%
Costa
26%
Borjas
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
Costa is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Borjas has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Costa
Borjas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
67"
Reach
+68"
30
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Borjas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.9
22.3
53.0
Performance Avg
23.0
55
Quality of Victory
25
85
Momentum Score
15
Costa
Borjas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
59%
Strike Accuracy
43%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
2
0
Body
1
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance3
0Clinch0
20Ground0
Costa
Borjas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Costa
Borjas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Costa
Borjas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
15
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Costa
Borjas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Borjas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
CostaBorjas
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBorjas
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (77% of attacks) — Borjas absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Borjas targets the head (67% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Borjas
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Borjas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R2
Jimmy FlickRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Borjas · Last 5
Upcoming
Andre LimaUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Imanol RodriguezRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05