The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale
Las Vegas, USA
1 Jun 2012
Featherweight
VS
96%
Holloway
4%
Schilling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holloway
Holloway is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 54 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holloway has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 47 points.
Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway
Schilling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Schilling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
2.4
56.8
Performance Avg
0.0
47
Quality of Victory
0
63
Momentum Score
0
Holloway
Schilling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
0.6
52%
Strike Accuracy
26%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
6
7
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
42Distance7
1Clinch0
2Ground0
Holloway
Schilling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holloway
Schilling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
2/7 fights
Holloway
Schilling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Holloway
Schilling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
0%
10
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Schilling
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HollowaySchilling
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
45 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedSchilling
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
45 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (84% of attacks) — Schilling absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Schilling targets the head (86% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Schilling
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Schilling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Schilling · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06
L · Sub · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 2.4Submission
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01