UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Featherweight
VS
40%
Erosa
60%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
Costa holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Erosa has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Erosa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Erosa
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
71"
36
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Erosa
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
59.4
46.2
Performance Avg
53.2
44
Quality of Victory
42
26
Momentum Score
84
Erosa
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
28
9
Body
6
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
31Distance36
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Erosa
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Erosa
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Erosa
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Erosa
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
57%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Erosa
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
ErosaCosta
Strike Zones
Erosa
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedCosta
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Erosa targets the head (72% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (76% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Erosa
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Erosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Erosa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03