UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Las Vegas, USA
7 Sept 2024
Bantamweight
VS
50%
Schnell
50%
Durden
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:29
Matt
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17 – 10
5'8"70" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 38
Cody
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
18 – 10
Well-Rounded35 yrsSouthpaw67" reach5'7"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Schnell

This is a genuine toss-up — Schnell at 50% vs Durden at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Schnell throws more volume but Durden connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Schnell's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Durden has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Schnell
Durden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
67"
36
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Schnell
Durden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
37.8
40.7
Performance Avg
38.8
37
Quality of Victory
34
45
Momentum Score
54
Schnell
Durden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Schnell
Durden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Schnell
Durden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
4
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/27 fights
Chin rating based on
17/28 fights
Schnell
Durden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
54
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Schnell
Durden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Schnell
Durden
Striking0.9 / 2.4Volume5.5 / 6.7Grappling4.8 / 2.9Wrestling3.4 / 2.0Submission4.3 / 1.4Pressure4.4 / 3.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Schnell
Strike Zones
Durden
Schnell
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Durden
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Durden targets the head (100% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Schnell
RND
Durden
0/0R00/0

Schnell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0102.7L1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L4.7W2.3L5.9W2.9L3.3L2.9L5.0W3.5L2016-122019-032022-052024-092025-11
WinLossTrend

Durden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.0L5.3W2.9L5.0W4.5W5.4W5.2W3.8L3.6L5.4W7.1L3.7L4.3L6.6L5.6W2020-122022-102024-072025-112026-04
WinLossTrend

Schnell · Last 5

Upcoming
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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5
Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

Durden · Last 5

Upcoming
Ode Osbourne
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Jafel FilhoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Nyamjargal TumendemberelRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R2
Allan NascimentoRating 4.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Jose OchoaRating 3.7
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Matt Schnell · Cody Durden
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