UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
San Jose, USA
26 Jul 2014
Featherweight
VS
19%
Torre
81%
Ortega
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ortega
Ortega is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Ortega throws more volume but Torre connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Torre's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Torre
Ortega
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Torre
Ortega
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.7
62.1
38.8
Performance Avg
53.7
43
Quality of Victory
48
48
Momentum Score
80
Torre
Ortega
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Torre
Ortega
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Torre
Ortega
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/21 fights
Chin rating based on
14/21 fights
Torre
Ortega
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
80
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Torre
Ortega
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Torre
Ortega
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
TorreOrtega
Strike Zones
Torre
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedOrtega
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Torre targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Ortega targets the body (67% of attacks) — Torre absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Torre
RND
Ortega
0/0R00/0
Torre · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Ortega · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Torre · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Myles JuryRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
L · Sub · R1
Godofredo PepeyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
W · Dec · R3
Yui Chul NamRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
L · KO · R1
Maximo BlancoRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Tiago dos Santos e SilvaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
Ortega · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
