UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
Newark, USA
1 Feb 2014
Lightweight
VS
39%
Varner
61%
Trujillo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:32
JV
Jamie Varner
21 – 11
5'8"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
AT
Abel Trujillo
"Killa"
15 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'8"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Trujillo

Trujillo holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Varner has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Varner throws more volume but Trujillo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Varner's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Varner
Trujillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Varner
Trujillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.9
21.4
41.1
Performance Avg
51.4
46
Quality of Victory
46
33
Momentum Score
90
Varner
Trujillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
11
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
19Clinch6
2Ground0
Varner
Trujillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Varner
Trujillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/23 fights
Varner
Trujillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
90
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · R1
Varner
Trujillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Varner
Trujillo
Striking4.0 / 6.2Volume3.3 / 2.5Grappling3.5 / 1.7Wrestling2.4 / 1.2Submission3.3 / 1.7Pressure5.7 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Varner
Strike Zones
Trujillo
Varner
Attacking
28HEAD1BODY0LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Trujillo
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD1BODY0LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Varner targets the head (97% of attacks) — Trujillo absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯Trujillo targets the head (92% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Varner
RND
Trujillo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Varner · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.0L5.0W5.5W4.0L4.5W5.5L2.8L1.5L2.7L2006-082012-082014-022014-12
WinLossTrend

Trujillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.2W3.3L4.0W5.0W4.5W4.0L5.5L2012-122014-022016-012017-12
WinLossTrend

Varner · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7
Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12

Trujillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
John MakdessiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · 2017-12
L · Sub · R3
James VickRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Jordan RinaldiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Sub · R1
Tony SimsRating 5
Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · R1
Gleison TibauRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11

News & Media

Jamie Varner · Abel Trujillo
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