UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jul 2019
Welterweight
VS
20%
Sanchez
80%
Chiesa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiesa
Chiesa is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Sanchez throws more volume but Chiesa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chiesa has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sanchez
Chiesa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+75"
44
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Sanchez
Chiesa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
50.7
46.0
Performance Avg
53.3
37
Quality of Victory
43
20
Momentum Score
50
Sanchez
Chiesa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
39%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Sanchez
Chiesa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sanchez
Chiesa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
36
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
22/27 fights
Sanchez
Chiesa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
50
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Sanchez
Chiesa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
60%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
9
13
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sanchez
Chiesa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
SanchezChiesa
Strike Zones
Sanchez
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedChiesa
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Chiesa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sanchez
RND
Chiesa
0/0R00/0
Sanchez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Sanchez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey GallRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig WhiteRating 4.5Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07