UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Brooklyn, USA
11 Feb 2017
Flyweight
VS
47%
Reis
53%
Sasaki
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sasaki
This is a genuine toss-up — Reis at 47% vs Sasaki at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Sasaki has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Sasaki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Reis's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sasaki has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reis
Sasaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'10"
65"
Reach
+71"
41
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Reis
Sasaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.5
17.8
41.5
Performance Avg
48.2
33
Quality of Victory
51
65
Momentum Score
46
Reis
Sasaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.2
33%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
1
Body
4
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Reis
Sasaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Reis
Sasaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Reis
Sasaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Reis
Sasaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reis
Sasaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
ReisSasaki
Strike Zones
Reis
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedSasaki
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reis targets the head (43% of attacks) — Sasaki absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Sasaki targets the head (62% of attacks) — Reis absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reis
RND
Sasaki
0/0R00/0
Reis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Sasaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Reis · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Ben NguyenRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
John MoragaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Henry CejudoRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Sub · R3
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
Sasaki · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R2
Jenel LausaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
L · Sub · R1
Jussier FormigaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
W · Sub · R2
Justin ScogginsRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02