UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Houston, USA
3 Oct 2015
Lightweight
VS
33%
Trevino
67%
Northcutt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:57
FT
Francisco Trevino
"Sitkayan"
13 – 3
5'9"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 10
SN
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
11 – 2
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox71" reach6'0"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Northcutt

Northcutt holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Trevino has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Northcutt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Northcutt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Trevino
Northcutt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+71"
44
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Trevino
Northcutt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.3
21.3
28.3
Performance Avg
54.0
25
Quality of Victory
40
27
Momentum Score
89
Trevino
Northcutt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
46%
Strike Accuracy
59%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
19
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch8
0Ground10
Trevino
Northcutt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Trevino
Northcutt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
76
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/16 fights
Chin rating based on
8/13 fights
Trevino
Northcutt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
27
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Trevino
Northcutt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Trevino
Northcutt
Striking0.7 / 4.8Volume8.7 / 5.5Grappling2.4 / 2.5Wrestling1.7 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure1.0 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Trevino
Strike Zones
Northcutt
Trevino
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD1BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Northcutt
Attacking
19HEAD1BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Trevino targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Northcutt absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Northcutt targets the head (90% of attacks) — Trevino absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Trevino
RND
Northcutt
0/0R00/0

Trevino · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.5L1.5L2014-032015-062015-10
WinLossTrend

Northcutt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.2W3.2L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W5.2W2015-102016-012016-122018-022018-07
WinLossTrend

Trevino · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Sage NorthcuttRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Johnny CaseRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Renee ForteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03

Northcutt · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Zak OttowRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Thibault GoutiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Michel QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Sub · R2
Mickey GallRating 3.3
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Enrique MarinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

News & Media

Francisco Trevino · Sage Northcutt
← Back to fights