UFC 59: Reality Check
Anaheim, USA
15 Apr 2006
Welterweight
VS
36%
Sherk
64%
Diaz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Diaz
Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Sherk has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sherk's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sherk
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+6'1"
67"
Reach
+76"
52
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Sherk
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.2
28.9
45.8
Performance Avg
49.6
32
Quality of Victory
49
65
Momentum Score
46
Sherk
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
32%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
16
2
Body
4
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance15
10Clinch6
0Ground0
Sherk
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sherk
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/40 fights
Chin rating based on
15/36 fights
Sherk
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Sherk
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
86%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sherk
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
SherkDiaz
Strike Zones
Sherk
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sherk targets the head (68% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (76% of attacks) — Sherk absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sherk
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Sherk · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Sherk · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 4.5Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
L · Dec · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 5.5Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
W · Dec · R3
Tyson GriffinRating 4.5Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
L · KO · R3
BJ PennRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 84: Ill Will · 2008-05
W · Dec · R5
Hermes FrancaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
Diaz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Robbie LawlerRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
Upcoming
Anderson SilvaUFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
L · Dec · R5
Georges St-PierreRating 5.5Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · Dec · R5
Carlos ConditRating 5.5Decision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
BJ PennRating 4.5Decision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10