UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
54%
Kowalkiewicz
46%
Juarez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kowalkiewicz
This is a genuine toss-up — Kowalkiewicz at 54% vs Juarez at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Juarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Striking split: Juarez throws more volume but Kowalkiewicz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kowalkiewicz
Juarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
5'3"
64"
Reach
+65"
40+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Juarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
27.5
35.6
Performance Avg
46.0
28
Quality of Victory
60
40
Momentum Score
29
Kowalkiewicz
Juarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.9
42%
Strike Accuracy
38%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
25
4
Body
15
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
36Distance42
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Kowalkiewicz
Juarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kowalkiewicz
Juarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Juarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
29
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Kowalkiewicz
Juarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kowalkiewicz
Juarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
KowalkiewiczJuarez
Strike Zones
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedJuarez
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (79% of attacks) — Juarez absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Juarez targets the head (57% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kowalkiewicz
RND
Juarez
0/0R00/0
Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Juarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Kowalkiewicz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Juarez · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5Decision
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R1
Liang NaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 1.6Submission
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01
L · Sub · R1
Loopy GodinezRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10