★ Championship Bout · Middleweight
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Middleweight
VS
59%
Weidman
41%
Rockhold
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 4 · 3:12
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weidman
This is a genuine toss-up — Weidman at 59% vs Rockhold at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rockhold has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Weidman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rockhold has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Weidman
Rockhold
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
78"+
Reach
77"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Weidman
Rockhold
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.1
35.5
57.0
Performance Avg
60.7
55
Quality of Victory
65
51
Momentum Score
85
Weidman
Rockhold
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
48%
Strike Accuracy
62%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
18
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground18
Weidman
Rockhold
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Weidman
Rockhold
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/24 fights
Chin rating based on
11/22 fights
Weidman
Rockhold
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
85
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Weidman
Rockhold
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Weidman
Rockhold
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.1
WeidmanRockhold
Strike Zones
Weidman
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedRockhold
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Weidman targets the head (67% of attacks) — Rockhold absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Rockhold targets the head (90% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Weidman
RND
Rockhold
0/0R00/0
Weidman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Rockhold · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Weidman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Rockhold · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 6.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · KO · R2
David BranchRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Michael BispingRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06