UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
Pittsburgh, USA
16 Sept 2017
Middleweight
VS
17%
Lombard
83%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:33
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
Smith is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lombard's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lombard
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'4"
71"
Reach
+76"
48
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lombard
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.7
58.3
39.9
Performance Avg
50.7
48
Quality of Victory
50
0
Momentum Score
100
Lombard
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
52%
7.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
1
Body
3
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance15
1Clinch1
0Ground1
Lombard
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lombard
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/44 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Lombard
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Lombard
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
77%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
5
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lombard
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
LombardSmith
Strike Zones
Lombard
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedSmith
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lombard targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (76% of attacks) — Lombard absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lombard
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lombard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Lombard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · R1
CB DollawayRating 4UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Johny HendricksRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
L · KO · R2
Dan HendersonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12