UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
Goiania, Brazil
30 May 2015
Featherweight
VS
20%
Lentz
80%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:10
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
Oliveira is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lentz's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lentz
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+74"
41
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lentz
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
63.3
45.3
Performance Avg
58.6
35
Quality of Victory
51
53
Momentum Score
100
Lentz
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
1
Body
3
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Lentz
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lentz
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/42 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Lentz
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Lentz
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
84%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
17
9
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lentz
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
LentzOliveira
Strike Zones
Lentz
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lentz targets the body (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the body (43% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lentz
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lentz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04