UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Heavyweight
VS
37%
Ivanov
63%
Lima
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lima
Lima holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Ivanov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lima has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Lima has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lima has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ivanov
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+75"
39+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ivanov
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.2
47.3
30.0
Performance Avg
53.8
25
Quality of Victory
49
50
Momentum Score
59
Ivanov
Lima
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
60%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
14
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance16
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Ivanov
Lima
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ivanov
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
16
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Ivanov
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Ivanov
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
73%
0
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ivanov
Lima
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
1.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
IvanovLima
Strike Zones
Ivanov
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedLima
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ivanov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Lima targets the head (82% of attacks) — Ivanov absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ivanov
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0
Ivanov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Ivanov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 5.1Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · Dec · R3
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7Decision
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05