METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
15 Feb 2014
Middleweight
VS
51%
Souza
49%
Carmont
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jacare SouzawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Francis Carmont · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Souza
→
Actual result
Souza wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Souza at 51% vs Carmont at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Souza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Risk flags
Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SouzaCarmont
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Souza
Carmont
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+78"
46
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Souza
Carmont
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
18.4
54.6
Performance Avg
46.6
53
Quality of Victory
33
56
Momentum Score
78
Souza
Carmont
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
7.9
Style: Pressure
4.3
2.0
Style: Volume
6.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Souza
Carmont
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
4
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Souza
Carmont
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
9/37 fights
Souza
Carmont
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
78
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Souza
Carmont
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Souza
Carmont
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
SouzaCarmont
Strike Zones
Souza
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedCarmont
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (86% of attacks) — Carmont absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Carmont targets the head (67% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Souza
RND
Carmont
0/0R00/0
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizSubmission
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L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczDecision
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L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanKO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
Carmont · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Thales LeitesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
CB DollawayDecision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
L · Dec · R3
Jacare SouzaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouDecision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lorenz LarkinDecision
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