METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
15 Feb 2014
Middleweight
VS
51%
Souza
49%
Carmont
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jacare SouzawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Francis Carmont · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Souza
→
Actual result
Souza wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Souza at 51% vs Carmont at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Souza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Souza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SouzaCarmont
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Souza
Carmont
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+78"
46
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Souza
Carmont
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
18.4
54.6
Performance Avg
46.6
53
Quality of Victory
33
56
Momentum Score
78
Souza
Carmont
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
0.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Souza
Carmont
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Souza
Carmont
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
9/37 fights
Souza
Carmont
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
78
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Souza
Carmont
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Souza
Carmont
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
SouzaCarmont
Strike Zones
Souza
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedCarmont
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (86% of attacks) — Carmont absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Carmont targets the head (67% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Souza
RND
Carmont
0/0R00/0
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Carmont · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
Carmont · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Thales LeitesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
CB DollawayRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
L · Dec · R3
Jacare SouzaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 4.5Decision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lorenz LarkinRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04