UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
15 Feb 2014
Middleweight
VS
51%
Souza
49%
Carmont
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JS
Jacare Souza
26 – 10
6'1"72" reachOrthodox46 yrs4-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 20
FC
Francis Carmont
"Limitless"
25 – 12
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Souza

This is a genuine toss-up — Souza at 51% vs Carmont at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Souza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Souza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Souza
Carmont
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+78"
46
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Souza
Carmont
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
18.4
54.6
Performance Avg
46.6
53
Quality of Victory
33
56
Momentum Score
78
Souza
Carmont
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Souza
Carmont
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Souza
Carmont
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
9/37 fights
Souza
Carmont
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
78
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Souza
Carmont
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Souza
Carmont
Striking5.6 / 1.3Volume2.0 / 6.7Grappling3.8 / 4.3Wrestling2.7 / 3.0Submission4.4 / 3.3Pressure7.9 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Souza
Strike Zones
Carmont
Souza
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Carmont
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (86% of attacks) — Carmont absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Carmont targets the head (67% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Souza
RND
Carmont
0/0R00/0

Souza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W3.7L5.3W5.8L6.3W6.4L6.1L2.1L2.4L2013-052015-042017-042019-042021-05
WinLossTrend

Carmont · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L2.8L2011-102012-112014-022014-08
WinLossTrend

Souza · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11

Carmont · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Thales LeitesRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
CB DollawayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
L · Dec · R3
Jacare SouzaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lorenz LarkinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04

News & Media

Jacare Souza · Francis Carmont
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