METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Lightweight
VS
56%
Dawson
44%
Rebecki
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:42
★ Official Result
Grant DawsonwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:42
def. Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dawson
→
Actual result
Dawson wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 56% vs Rebecki at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rebecki has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DawsonRebecki
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dawson
Rebecki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
66"
32+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Dawson
Rebecki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
50.1
57.5
Performance Avg
48.5
39
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
50
Dawson
Rebecki
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.4
/ 10
5.1
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
5.9
5.0
Style: Volume
4.3
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Dawson
Rebecki
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dawson
Rebecki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/25 fights
Dawson
Rebecki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Dawson
Rebecki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Rebecki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
DawsonRebecki
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRebecki
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rebecki targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Rebecki
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dawson · Last 5
Upcoming
Nurullo AlievUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiSubmission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
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W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaKO/TKO
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Rebecki · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Kyle PrepolecKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonSubmission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiDecision
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