UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Lightweight
VS
58%
Dawson
42%
Rebecki
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dawson
This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 58% vs Rebecki at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Rebecki throws more volume but Dawson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rebecki has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dawson
Rebecki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
66"
32+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Dawson
Rebecki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
46.4
57.5
Performance Avg
43.8
39
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
50
Dawson
Rebecki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Dawson
Rebecki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dawson
Rebecki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/25 fights
Dawson
Rebecki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Dawson
Rebecki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Rebecki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
DawsonRebecki
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRebecki
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rebecki targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Rebecki
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dawson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Rebecki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Dawson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
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Diego FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
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W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6KO/TKO
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Rebecki · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7Decision
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Chris DuncanRating 6.8Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5KO/TKO
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