UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
25 Oct 2014
Featherweight
VS
71%
Elkins
29%
Martins
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
LM
Lucas Martins
"Mineiro"
19 – 3
Well-Rounded37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'0"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Elkins throws more volume but Martins connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Martins has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Elkins
Martins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Elkins
Martins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
18.1
46.3
Performance Avg
49.7
35
Quality of Victory
45
66
Momentum Score
52
Elkins
Martins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.8
38%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
5
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
7Clinch6
0Ground0
Elkins
Martins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Martins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Elkins
Martins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
52
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
Elkins
Martins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
1
12
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Martins
Striking3.4 / 6.1Volume6.3 / 3.1Grappling2.8 / 2.6Wrestling1.9 / 1.8Submission1.6 / 2.5Pressure4.5 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
Elkins
Strike Zones
Martins
Elkins
Attacking
4HEAD5BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Martins
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD5BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the body (50% of attacks) — Martins absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Martins targets the head (75% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Martins
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Martins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.0L5.5W5.0W5.5W6.0L2.8L4.5W2013-012013-092014-102016-04
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Martins · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Robert WhitefordRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
L · KO · R2
Mirsad BekticRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · 2015-05
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
W · KO · R3
Alex WhiteRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
W · Sub · R1
Ramiro HernandezRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · 2013-09

News & Media

Darren Elkins · Lucas Martins
← Back to fights