UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka
Las Vegas, USA
1 May 2021
Middleweight
VS
72%
Strickland
28%
Jotko
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Strickland
Strickland is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Strickland has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Strickland's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jotko has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Strickland
Jotko
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"
Reach
+77"
35+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Strickland
Jotko
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
22.7
50.9
Performance Avg
42.8
37
Quality of Victory
28
100
Momentum Score
60
Strickland
Jotko
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
38%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
6
11
Body
5
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
35Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Strickland
Jotko
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Strickland
Jotko
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/38 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Strickland
Jotko
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Strickland
Jotko
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
9%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Strickland
Jotko
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
StricklandJotko
Strike Zones
Strickland
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedJotko
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Strickland targets the head (49% of attacks) — Jotko absorbs 49% of strikes there
🎯Jotko targets the head (50% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Strickland
RND
Jotko
0/0R00/0
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Jotko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Strickland · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
Jotko · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Misha CirkunovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05