METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Los Angeles, USA
28 Feb 2015
Lightweight
VS
75%
Ferguson
25%
Tibau
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:37
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:37
def. Gleison Tibau · UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonTibau
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Tibau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Tibau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
15.4
54.2
Performance Avg
43.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
52
Momentum Score
74
Ferguson
Tibau
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
3.9
3.4
Style: Volume
6.6
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
3
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Ferguson
Tibau
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
6
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Tibau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
28/47 fights
Ferguson
Tibau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
74
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Tibau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
31%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Tibau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
FergusonTibau
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTibau
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (45% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Tibau
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Tibau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevKO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloUFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeDecision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01