UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Los Angeles, USA
28 Feb 2015
Lightweight
VS
75%
Ferguson
25%
Tibau
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:37
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
GT
Gleison Tibau
33 – 14
Well-Rounded4-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferguson

Ferguson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ferguson
Tibau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Tibau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
15.4
54.2
Performance Avg
43.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
52
Momentum Score
74
Ferguson
Tibau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
35%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
3
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Ferguson
Tibau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Tibau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
28/47 fights
Ferguson
Tibau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
74
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Tibau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
31%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson
Tibau
Striking3.3 / 1.8Volume3.4 / 6.6Grappling3.8 / 3.6Wrestling2.7 / 2.5Submission4.0 / 2.5Pressure6.1 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Ferguson
Strike Zones
Tibau
Ferguson
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Tibau
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (45% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson
RND
Tibau
0/0R00/0

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Tibau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W2.0L4.0L3.5L5.5L2006-112009-042011-112014-072018-06
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Tibau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Tony Ferguson · Gleison Tibau
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