UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Baku, Azerbaijan
21 Jun 2025
Women's Bantamweight
VS
45%
Zhelezniakova
55%
Mullins
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mullins
This is a genuine toss-up — Zhelezniakova at 45% vs Mullins at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mullins has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Zhelezniakova throws more volume but Mullins connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Zhelezniakova
Mullins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
68"
30+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Zhelezniakova
Mullins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.9
49.4
35.0
Performance Avg
44.0
25
Quality of Victory
40
61
Momentum Score
58
Zhelezniakova
Mullins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
55%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
8
9
Body
6
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
20Distance15
0Clinch3
0Ground0
Zhelezniakova
Mullins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Zhelezniakova
Mullins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/13 fights
Chin rating based on
5/9 fights
Zhelezniakova
Mullins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
58
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Zhelezniakova
Mullins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Zhelezniakova
Mullins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
ZhelezniakovaMullins
Strike Zones
Zhelezniakova
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedMullins
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Zhelezniakova targets the head (55% of attacks) — Mullins absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Mullins targets the head (44% of attacks) — Zhelezniakova absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Zhelezniakova
RND
Mullins
0/0R00/0
Zhelezniakova · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Mullins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Zhelezniakova · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Melissa CrodenRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Melissa MullinsRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Ailin PerezRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Montse RendonRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Mullins · Last 5
Upcoming
Bia MesquitaUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Daria ZhelezniakovaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · KO · R2
Klaudia SygulaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Nora CornolleRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Irina AlekseevaRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10